Trump outsmarts himself; bad strategic lies hurt his odds of winning
- On This Day In The Trump Administration
- May 17, 2024
- 2 min read
Updated: May 21, 2024
May 20: On This Day In 2020
Mail-in voting has become an increasingly popular form of exercising our constitutional privileges. And if ever a scenario called for our leaders to encourage all citizens to consider voting by mail, it was the primary season of 2020. Many Americans were still stuck at home under lockdown orders, and everyone was being cautioned against gathering in crowds.
Yet Donald Trump had become a leading voice against utilizing this convenient method, and he doubled-down on his stance during Covid. OTDI 2020, Trump even threatened to withhold much-needed federal funding from Michigan and Nevada because, he falsely alleged, their mail-in process was "done illegally."
It didn’t matter that Trump was factually wrong; his MAGA supporters got the message pretty clearly: “If you vote by mail, somehow your vote won't count; Republicans shouldn’t do it.”
For all his occasional savvy, this was among the least politically astute moves of Trump’s career.
What was really behind his complaints? Trump assumed he could reduce Democratic votes by eliminating their preferred voting method. By November, Dems ended up being nearly twice as likely to vote by mail as did Republicans.
In the summer of 2020, the political strategy firm Hawkfish realized how the November vote tallying would play out. Day-of, in-person ballots are often the first to be counted -- sometimes days before the mail-in ballots are counted. So Hawkfish cautioned that on Election Night, on the TV networks, it would appear that Trump was far ahead and destined for victory. But, they predicted, that would only be a “Red Mirage,” to be washed away by the tide of Blue votes counted in the days to follow.
That’s precisely what happened. Inconvenient facts, though, never bothered Donald Trump. So he proclaimed the apparent shift in his fortunes to be the result of cheating. That’s why, today, 68% of Republicans wrongly believe Biden won the election due to “voter fraud.”
Interestingly, these days, Trump now realizes it was foolish to dissuade his MAGA followers from using mail-in ballots. After all, what if it rained on election day, or they got a flat tire? If they hadn’t voted by then, they might not get to vote at all. So, “after blaming his 2020 loss on mail balloting, Trump tries to make GOP voters believe it’s OK now.”
Dive Deeper
CNN provides context on this topic
Pew had the data on the Dems’ nearly-double usage of mail-in ballots vs GOP
Here’s the summary of Hawkfish’s groundbreaking work to ensure our election tallies could be trusted
Queen City News had the AP story on Trump’s recent about-face
Base Pic: Aaron Chown
Summary: Trump's bad strategy hurts his electoral chances - REd Mirage